Pot Odds

The math of this game is one of my weakest areas. But I'm a work in progress. Pot odds are crucial in cash games. Adhere to them and you will make money over the long run.

The term Pot Odds is often used loosely after someone make a bad call and sucks out. It's the excuse of the WADB, the Wild-Ass Douche Bag. How they can say they had pot odd after calling a pot-sized bet with a 9-hi flush draw on the turn is beyond me. They did not have pot odds.

Another time the term is often used is when someone is wondering if they should draw to the straight or flush. If one flops a 4-flush the chance that they will make a flush is about one in three. If their opponent bets the 1/3rd of the pot, they will have pot odds to call. If their opponent bets the pot, they need a 50% chance of winning to make the call. With only a 30% chance holding the 4-flush the correct play is usually the fold. If you call, you are not getting pot odds to call. If you make a habit out of this, you will lose money in the long run. That's just math.

The term pot odds is used least often when discussing calling bets with the chance that your hand is already ahead. In my opinion, this is one of the most important applications of pot odds. If you get to the river holding second pair and a strong kicker and an opponent bets the pot, you should call if you think you have a 50% chance of winning the hand. Why? Ok, say you have $5 in the pot, and your opponent bets another $5. Now there is $10 out there that you have to risk only $5 to win. If you can win in this situation half the time, you will break even. It's simple.
So as you can see, pot odds determine when you should call with unmade hands as well as drawing hands.

All of this brings me to the following hand. I'm playing .10/.25 NL HE on Poker Stars. I have a very aggressive image, only because I've been getting some nice hands and I have had some luck from the blinds.

I’ve raised several hands recently at this point, so I know I’m going to get skeptical callers when I raise 6xBB from the SB. I raised this large because there was so many limpers and because I had done it previously.

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #1099737778:
Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2005/01/19 - 18:17:05 (ET)
BurntOrnge: posts small blind $0.10
fedex32: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BurntOrnge [As Kd]
spike_lee_99: folds
SleepySnoozy: folds
swooshdog4: folds
RIDE4LIFE: calls $0.25
gvouel: calls $0.25
okcjim: calls $0.25
jonah514: calls $0.25
BurntOrnge: raises $1.25 to $1.50
fedex32: folds
RIDE4LIFE: calls $1.25
gvouel: calls $1.25
okcjim: folds
jonah514: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 6s 2d]
BurntOrnge: checks
RIDE4LIFE: checks
gvouel: bets $0.25

Ok, here the pot is sitting at $5.75, and gvouel bets a whole quarter. Let’s see, .25 for me to call, $5.75 in the pot, of course I call.

BurntOrnge: calls $0.25
RIDE4LIFE: calls $0.25
*** TURN *** [9s 6s 2d] [9h]
BurntOrnge: checks
RIDE4LIFE: checksgvouel: bets $0.75

He gets braver but It’s still only .75 for me to call, and there is now $6.50 in the pot. Don’t have to win this very often for it to be a good call.

BurntOrnge: calls $0.75
RIDE4LIFE: folds
*** RIVER *** [9s 6s 2d 9h] [3c]
BurntOrnge is disconnected
BurntOrnge is connected
BurntOrnge: checks
gvouel: bets $1.75

There is now $8 in the pot and he bets $1.75. I’m really thinking pocket pair, and I’m thinking I should save the money and fold. But ‘pot odds’ keeps echoing in my head. Speaking in gambler’s terms, I’m getting about 5:1 on my money if I call. If I think there’s a 1/5 chance I’ll win the hand (18% percent in this case [if I did the math right] I should call. Well, I thought I had about a 1 in five chance of winning the hand. So I clicked call.

Then I did something funny that should hammer home what I’m talking about. I immediately clicked over to a different window. I did care what happened, but that wasn’t the point. I thought I had a one in five chance of winning, so I called.

BurntOrnge: calls $1.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
gvouel: shows [Kc Qs] (a pair of Nines)
BurntOrnge: shows [As Kd] (a pair of Nines - Ace kicker)
BurntOrnge collected $10.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $11 Rake $0.50Board [9s 6s 2d 9h 3c]
Seat 1: BurntOrnge (small blind) showed [As Kd] and won ($10.50) with a pair of Nines
Seat 2: fedex32 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: spike_lee_99 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: SleepySnoozy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: swooshdog4 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: RIDE4LIFE folded on the Turn
Seat 7: gvouel showed [Kc Qs] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 8: okcjim folded before Flop
Seat 9: jonah514 (button) folded before Flop

I’ll admit I was surprised I won the hand. But if I was 80% sure I was beat it’s still ok for me to call. The pot odds being offered are simply too good for me to fold what might be a winner.

Notes on this hand: I didn’t play it great. If I thought I was leading I should have raised somewhere and made him fold. Complicating caveat to that, I never necessarily thought I was leading, I thought I had odds to make calls. And there I lose myself…